New York City summers are expected to be even more dreadful by 2080 and after, as the number of hot days is expected to triple. In tandem, mortality rates due to exhaustion, dehydration, and respiratory conditions are predicted to rise. Estimates as many as 3,331 individuals could die every consecutive year 60 years from now because of heat exposure. The likelihood increases as temperatures climb above 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32 degrees Celsius).
Elisaveta P. Petkova, Project Director with National Center for Disease Preparedness and Research Associate with The Earth Institute at Columbia University, said that investigators were bewildered at the wide number of public health effects resulting from adaptation, climate, and demographic variables.
She said analysts were shocked by comparing the projected number of deaths between 167 to 3,331 in 2080 to 638 heat-related deaths between 2000 and 2006. Petkova also juxtaposed these forecasts to a related heat wave that took place in Europe in 2003, which resulted in thousands of deaths.
“If New York happens to experience something like this, which is more likely due to climate change, [with] more extreme heat events,” says Petkova, “the consequences can be devastating.”
But there are two measures that can prevent this scenario. The first directive is to reduce fossil fuel emissions in New York City, which could lead to nearly 2,000 fewer heat-oriented deaths. And researchers also pointed to a public approach to increase the number of cooling centers, which could minimize 1,198 casualties.
Other possible initiatives include installations of reflective roofs, tree planting, and green infrastructure.
The entire study was published in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives.
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